KEY TAKEAWAYS

The Senior Citizens League raised its Social Security COLA projection for 2024 to 3.2% from 3%.

2024's increase would be less than half of 2023's 8.7% jump, which was a more than four-decade high.

The COLA is determined using the Labor Department's CPI-W inflation index, and the Social Security Administration is expected to release its official number in mid-October.

Non-profit senior citizens' advocacy group the Senior Citizens League raised its estimate for 2024's Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) to 3.2%, up from 3%, after the latest inflation report showed prices rose more than expected last month.

A 3.2% jump would raise the average monthly retiree benefit by $57.30 to $1,847. That would be a much smaller change than this year’s boost of 8.7%, a four-decade high, but still well above the 20-year average gain of 2.6%.

The COLA is determined by using the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) over July, August, and September. The Labor Department reported the CPI-W was up 3.2% on an annual basis in July, and data released today showed the August gain was 3.4%. Last year, the July CPI-W jumped 9.1%, and it was 8.7% higher the following month.

The Social Security Administration is expected to release the 2024 COLA number in the middle of October. The new COLA will be reflected in Social Security checks sent out in January.